The REMAX 2024 Canadian Housing Outlook Report

Canadians’ outlook on home ownership remains positive, according to the 2024 Outlook Report from RE/MAX Canada. According to the report, 73% of Canadians are confident that home ownership is the best investment, a sentiment that remains unchanged year-over-year. While the market is anticipated to cool in the first half of 2024, Canadians’ perceptions of real estate as a good investment hasn’t shifted since 2022.

National

A persistent housing shortage & a tricky interest rate environment were the largest challenges this past year. 61% of Canadians currently own their home & of these homeowners, 27% are currently living in the first home they purchased.

More than half of Canadians surveyed are concerned that interest rates will impact their ability to engage in the housing market in 2024.

Looking ahead, the RE/MAX network of brokers and agents expects the market to be more active in 2024, with national avg sale prices likely to increase by 0.5% and 61% of regions surveying anticipating unit sales to increase in 2024.

Provincial

Despite various markets in Ontario favouring sellers or experiencing balanced conditions in 2023, the majority of regions are currently buyers’ markets including Niagara, Mississauga & Brampton. Although Hamilton and Burlington experienced varying conditions throughout the year, both have shifted toward buyer’s markets in Q4 of 2023. 

The GTA market is anticipated to gain balance in 2024 but is also expected to favour buyers at certain points of the year.  

VIEW THE FULL OUTLOOK DATA TABLE HERE

Bank Of Canada & Interest Rates

2023 saw 3 out of 8 potential interest rate adjustments, bringing the benchmark at the end of 2023 to 5%. Economists are expecting the Bank of Canada will hold interest rates, with some saying they expect the central bank to be done hiking rates. 

The reason Canada’s central bank raised interest rates in June and July was due to first-quarter growth rising amid an increase in housing demand. This was “short-lived” and spending, employment gains and inflation have since slowed.  

Expectations are below trend economic growth to continue over the coming months, which will push inflation gradually closer to the two-per-cent target. This will give the Bank of Canada a few months before it starts to prepare markets for rate cuts, which some expect will start in April 2024. Over the next 12 months, economists are predicting anywhere from 1.5%-2% in decreases to the Prime Rate.

Concurrently, bond yields fell dramatically at the tail end of 2023. Bond yields dictate the price of fixed rate mortgages in Canada, and this brought the return of the 5-year fixed back below 5%. Of course, there’s caveats (for purchases under 1 million, less than 20% downpayment, etc). 

Although 5 year term is a considerable amount of time to lock at this rate, this may be the best option for First Time Buyers to qualify for up to 10% more than if they were to go with a 3 year term as these rates are closer to 6%.   

Federal Fall Economic Statement

The Fall Economic Statement was released in November with plenty of focus on the housing market.

Of the changes proposed in the statement, the government lists the removal of GST for cooperative housing on new rentals, $1 billion in funding over 2025-2026 for 7,000 new affordable homes, $15 billion in funding over the same period for over 30,000 new rental homes, a new Canadian Mortgage Charter for borrower relief, and tax changes to limit short-term rental services.

The new Canadian Mortgage Charter proposed in the Fall Economic Statement hopes to provide relief to Canadians preparing to face higher monthly mortgage payments when they renew. The charter would improve the way lenders interact with borrowers during the mortgage process and would allow homeowners with an insured mortgage up for renewal to skip the stress test if they are switching lenders at the end of their mortgage term. 

Higher borrowing costs and increasing home prices continue to “weigh on real estate activity” resulting in the weakest mortgage growth we’ve seen in Canada since 2001. According to Statistics Canada, residential mortgage credit rose 3.2% over last year, reaching $2.14 trillion, which is the weakest annual growth rate in over two decades.

Niagara: Buyers Market in 2024

The average sale price in the Niagara decreased by 12.3% between 2022 and 2023 (from $798,079 in 2022 to $700,052 in 2023), while the number of sales decreased by 7.4% (from 5,862 in 2022 to 5,431 in 2023). 

The market is currently a buyer’s market, which is expected to continue into 2024. Average residential sale price is expected to increase by 3.5% 2024, while the number of sales transactions is expected to increase by 4.5 per cent.

In 2024, the top three most desirable neighbourhoods in Niagara are anticipated to be Beamsville/Grimsby, Crystal Beach/Ridgeway, and St. Catharines. When it comes to trends in liveability, buyers in the region are primarily attracted to larger lot sizes, as well as building amenities (if purchasing condominiums).

The property type that’s driving the most demand in the region is single-detached houses. First-time buyers are drawn to the region for its relative affordability primarily looking for homes within the $500,000 – $600,000 range. The condo market is also being driven primarily by first-time buyers, alongside investors, looking for homes within the $450,000 – $500,000 range. 

Is 2024 the best year for YOU and your big move?

Whether you are planning to buy, sell or invest in the Niagara Region, our team of local agents are committed to servicing your real estate needs with a signature boutique-style approach. We are always open to conversations, with no pressure of obligations!

If you are curious that the market conditions in the new year could benefit your goals, please reach out and any member of the Portfolio Realty Group will be happy to help!