As we move into the second half of the year, where is the Niagara Region housing market headed next?
To answer that, we need to take a detailed look at what has happened so far in 2025 and what the most recent data suggests about the months to come.
But make no mistake: this year feels like sellers trying to catch a falling knife. The market continues to slip downward while many property owners are still reaching for values that no longer exist.
This post dives into the key real estate trends in St. Catharines and the wider Niagara Region from January to April 2025, with a focus on home prices, listing and sales activity, time on market, and housing starts. All data referenced is sourced from reports published within the last 30 days to ensure accuracy and timeliness.
Market Overview: January to April 2025
The Niagara Region real estate market has been marked by slower activity in the first four months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Sales are down, new listings are fewer, and average home prices have generally declined. Here are the highlights:
Home Sales: In April 2025, Niagara Region saw 539 residential sales, down 34.5% year-over-year. This marks the slowest April for sales since 2020 (CREA Stats – May 2025).
New Listings: April brought 1,546 new listings to market across the region, a 20.1% decline compared to April 2024. While February saw a notable bump in listings, this trend hasn’t held steady into spring (CREA Stats – May 2025).
Benchmark Prices: According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) benchmark for the region in April was $616,700, down 4.7% from April 2024. Segment-specific benchmarks include:
- Single-family homes: $642,500 (down 2.9%)
- Townhomes: $571,900 (down 8.3%)
- Condos: $398,400 (down 10.3%) (CREA Stats – May 2025)
St. Catharines Snapshot In the city of St. Catharines specifically, the median home price in April was $600,000, while homes spent an average of 40 days on the market. The median underbid was -$16,250, indicating a buyer-leaning environment (Wahi Market Report – May 2025).
The city recorded 386 new listings in April 2025, up from 291 in April 2024, suggesting that while region-wide inventory is tight, St. Catharines may be attracting more seller confidence (Niagara Independent – May 2025)
Still, even in stronger pockets, many sellers are gripping tightly to price points from last year, refusing to acknowledge the new baseline. In a market that’s been sustained in part by outside capital (whether from Toronto investors, international buyers, or amateur property investors) the pullback has been sharp. All those streams have dried up, and the market
Housing Starts and Construction Trends
In contrast to declining sales activity, housing starts have shown positive growth in Niagara. In January 2025, the St. Catharines-Niagara CMA recorded a 17% increase in housing starts year-over-year. This growth is primarily being driven by multi-unit construction, highlighting a shift toward more affordable and higher-density development (Niagara Independent – May 2025).
Even so, more supply won’t solve the issue if buyers can’t afford what’s already available. Local sentiment remains stuck on the same refrain: prices are still too high, and affordability remains out of reach.
Economic Outlook for the Rest of 2025
According to a May 2025 report from The Conference Board of Canada, St. Catharines-Niagara is poised for a moderate economic rebound in the latter half of the year. Inflation is expected to continue falling toward the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, which should ease borrowing conditions and support stronger consumer spending. Overall economic growth in the region is forecasted at 2.4% for 2025 (Conference Board of Canada – May 2025).
While this may help some buyers re-enter the market, the broader sentiment continues to drag. With fewer external players to push prices higher and a local buyer pool that feels increasingly priced out, expecting sharp rebounds this year may be overly optimistic.
What to Expect for the Remainder of 2025
Based on the year-to-date trends and current forecasts, here’s what buyers and sellers in Niagara can likely expect through the rest of 2025:
- Stabilizing Prices: Although prices have declined since last year, the pace of decline appears to be slowing. But don’t confuse this with a return to growth. AT BEST, the market may simply level out.
- More Balanced Market: The surge in housing starts and moderation in interest rates could gradually shift the region back toward balance, especially in cities like St. Catharines. However; there’s no current need for more inventory, just more affordability. If the available product does not correct to fall in line with local buyer perception, listings will continue to rot for the remainder of 2025.
- Improved Affordability: Slower price growth and increased supply of multi-family homes may improve entry-level affordability for first-time buyers.
- Longer Selling Times: Average days on market remain elevated, meaning sellers should prepare for longer listing periods, and likely further price corrections.
Why It’s a Smart Time for Buyers
Despite slower sales and softer pricing, the current market presents a unique window of opportunity for motivated buyers. With less competition and a rise in average days on market, buyers are finding they have more time, leverage, and choice than they’ve had in recent years. Many sellers are motivated, particularly those who need to move due to life changes or shifting financial priorities. This opens the door for well-informed buyers to negotiate favorable terms and secure properties at real market value…often below asking. Coupled with stabilizing interest rates and increased inventory in key segments like townhomes and condos, now is an excellent time for buyers to enter the market or make a strategic move. Those who act decisively could find themselves ahead of the curve when momentum begins to return in 2026.
Final Thoughts
Catching a falling knife rarely ends well.
That’s the position many sellers find themselves in as we continue through 2025. With fewer buyers, declining prices, and no lifeline from Toronto or foreign capital, Niagara’s housing market is undergoing a reset. Sellers must adjust expectations and price competitively, or risk chasing a market that continues to move out of reach.
For tailored insights or local expertise, feel free to get in touch with the Portfolio Realty Group.
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